A colleague of mine took a round in the chest and was dead a few minutes later. Ramaphosa's aides wanted to rush him out of the area, but he refused to panic. He was cool and collected and left when he had finished meeting the victims of the recent violence. The next day he was back on the phone negotiating a political settlement with the leaders of the men who had tried to kill him.In those days Cyril was the former union leader who was about to be elected general secretary of the African National Congress.

He was polite and soft spoken, intellectually gifted and - when he needed to be - as tough as old boots. But his greatest achievement was to recognise when compromise was essential Mr Ramaphosa is now a wealthy and respected businessman Many believe he will be a future president of South Africa. He is urbane and charming, and I can't think of a better man to despatch to Ulster.The question of whether Mr Ramaphosa will be coming to Belfast now hinges on two issues: whether the Ulster Unionist Party intends to accept the redefined idea of decommissioning, and whether it is going to use objections to the renaming of the Royal Ulster Constabulary as a reason to stay out of the power-sharing government.If Cyril himself were leading the Unionist negotiators, he would doubtless advise them to take the deal as the best on offer. The South African and the Ulster peace processes are both triumphs of political pragmatism over deeply held principle. Where the ANC offered "sunset clauses" guaranteeing minority political power (albeit short-term) in return for a swift transition to democracy, the Unionists and the IRA also came to the threshold of real peace through difficult compromises.The IRA's decision to open its arms dumps to outsiders is a revolutionary step. This was not an ace which the IRA had been holding up its sleeve, but a profoundly difficult concession only extracted through the skill and determination of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness. Refusing to recognise the historical significance of the republican concession will not lead to a new armed conflict, but it will seriously marginalise the moderates in the leadership.Though we are well accustomed to hearing the leaders of all sides in Ulster declare that they have "gone as far as they can", I think this is definitely the case with the IRA.

I was amazed to hear that they'd moved as far as independent verification. Is it a definite guarantee that they won't take up arms again? Of course not. The only guarantee of that is a functioning power-sharing government at Stormont. But my instinct is that the "war" has burned itself out.Though there are hard-liners on the IRA army council, there is no appetite for renewed violence among grassroots republicans. The same goes for the loyalist paramilitaries.However, underlying tensions and hatreds remain. And without a political process and some shared form of responsibility-taking, the long-term future can only be further conflict.